characters Human Compatible: Artificial Intelligence and the Problem of Control 107

characters Human Compatible: Artificial Intelligence and the Problem of Control

characters Human Compatible: Artificial Intelligence and the Problem of Control 107 ☆ [Ebook] ➩ Human Compatible: Artificial Intelligence and the Problem of Control ➯ Stuart Russell – Danpashley.co.uk The most important book on AI this yearThe GuardianMr Russell's exciting book goes deepThe most important book Artificial Intelligence MOBI #9734 o. It's rare that I don't finish a book and this book is one of them Not that it's a bad book but one for which I am apparently not a targeted audience written for people like meThe subject is I believe super important and will gain importance in the years to come The author spends an enormous amount of time just logically proving that other people in this field are wrong At some point I gave up as I'm not the one reading hundreds of pages of rhetoric and logical reasoning I'll try again not from the start

Free read ✓ eBook, PDF or Kindle ePUB ò Stuart Russell

Ep while sparkling with dry witticisms The Wall Street Journ. The book starts with an interesting premise what will happen if we succeed in developing human level general or greater AI Russell asserts that the implications of this are too great and too far reaching to leave the outcome to chance So the argument goes whether or not you consider the development of human level general AI to be plausible if we even acknowledge its mere possibility we owe it to ourselves to prepare for its advent and to address its implications in a serious way before we have summoned the proverbial demonI realize that Russell's purpose with this book was not to address the plausibility of human level AI coming to fruition as a discrete point However there is a certain point where in my view he makes this jarring leap that leaves the reader frustrated There is this discussion of Alpha Go and basic AI design philosophies and then BAM we are into singularities and the end of the world At one point Russell apologizes for delving into science fiction in a discussion about space technology or whatnot the implication being that all this talk of ultra intelligent machines taking over the world is not science fictionWhile I am not an AI expert I used to code in GW Basic as a kid I have read enough on this subject to be deeply skeptical about the notion that human level AI is just on the horizon or frankly is even possible see Melanie Mitchell's excellent book on the subject I am not saying that it isn't possible to be clear but merely that alot of the breathless pronouncements and scenarios posited in this book seem divorced from the actual reality of what we have achieved and likely can achieve with current approaches to AIRussell in my view takes uite alot for granted and is uick to succumb to hyperbolic notions unsupported by present circumstances like you'd expect from a breathless Time Magazine feature If the kind of AI he envisions is possible he fails to illustrate or even discuss any plausible bridge between our current AI and that end stepThe most interesting part of the book is the discussion of how we can mitigate against the threat of boundless AI There are some interesting ideas here in the discussion of how we measure human wants and purposes which dovetails into a fascinating discussion of philosophies like utilitarianism but I could not help but think that this was all just pie in the sky nonsense without any sense of what form a true general AI would take and how functionally we would even get to that point I don't blame AI researchers for throwing up their hands and just sidestepping this whole discourseRussell is uick to dismiss the just turn it off idea of Turing and others yet I couldn't help but think that his own ideas were just variations on this form or at best just refinements of Asimov's three laws If a machine truly were super intelligent what would preclude it from changing its own programming and parameters as even humans can do within limits Sentience free will and the limits of our ability to program a machine that may be able to program itself are never really touched on and for good reason Russell simply has no idea what functionally such an AI would be capable or incapable of because we simply have no earthly clue at present how to even scratch the surface of programming a general AIAt the end of the day Russell seems to brush aside this criticism with the facile never bet against human ingenuity line but to borrow his own metaphor we may be no closer to inventing strong AI than a slug is to catching the Starship Enterprise travelling at Warp 9 And programming in safeguards for a godlike AI may be as ridiculous as the slug believing it can pilot the starship

Stuart Russell ò 7 Summary

Human Compatible Artificial Intelligence and the Problem of ControlN AI this yearThe GuardianMr Russell's exciting book goes de. Stuart Russell is a professor of computer science at UC Berkeley who was featured in the YouTube film ‘Do You Trust This Computer’ Daniel Kahneman Nobel prize winning author of Thinking Fast and Slow called Human Compatible ‘The most important book I have read in some time’In recent years several notable books have contemplated whether or not homo sapiens will be able to retain control of AIs We are not yet facing the problem because so far AIs are characterized by ‘narrow’ intelligence that is unlike homo sapiens their intelligence is limited to certain domains But experts predict that in the next couple of decades Artificial General Intelligence will emerge that is AIs that can think about all topics just like human beings can only with an I estimated of 6000In his book Life 30 MIT professor Max Tegmark contends that this could be a good news story presaging an AI utopia where everyone is served by AIs But this future is not ours to decide since the AIs having evolved to AGIs much smarter than we are may not be keen to remain slaves to an inferior species And since they learn through experience even if they initially serve us there is no reason to believe they will continue to do so Tegmark makes a pointed analogy‘Suppose a bunch of ants create you to be a recursively self improving robot much smarter than them who shares their goals and helps build bigger and better anthills and that you eventually attain the human level intelligence and understanding that you have now Do you think you’ll spend the rest of your days just optimizing anthills or do you think you might develop a taste for sophisticated uestions and pursuits that the ants have no ability to comprehend If so do you think you’ll find a way to override the ant protection urge that your formicine creators endowed you with in much the same way that the real you overrides some of the urges your genes have given you And in that case might a superintelligent friendly AI find our current human goals as uninspiring and vapid as you find those of the ants and evolve new goals different from those it learned and adopted from usPerhaps there’s a way of designing a self improving AI that’s guaranteed to retain human friendly goals forever but I think it’s fair to say that we don’t yet know how to build one – or even whether it’s possible’Russell picks up the problem where Tegmark left off‘Beginning around 2011 deep learning techniues began to produce dramatic advances in speech recognition visual object recognition and machine translation – three of the most important problems in the field By some measures machines now match or exceed human capabilities in these areas In 2016 and 2017 DeepMind’s AlphaGo defeated Lee Sedol former world Go champion and Ke Jie the current champion – events that some experts predicted wouldn’t happen until 2097 if everWhen the AlphaGo team at Google DeepMind succeeded in creating their world beating Go program they did this without really working on Go They didn’t design decision procedures that work only for Go Instead they made improvements to two fairly general purpose techniues – lookahead search to make decisions and reinforcement learning to learn how to evaluate positions – so that they were sufficiently effective to play Go at a superhuman level Those improvements are applicable to many other problems including problems as far afield as robotics Just to rub it in a version of AlphaGo called AlphaZero recently learned to trounce AlphaGo at Go and also to trounce Stockfish the world’s best chess program far better than any human AlphaZero did all this in one dayFor complex problems such as backgammon and Go where the number of states is enormous and the reward comes only at the end of the game lookahead search won’t work Instead AI researchers have developed a method called reinforcement learning or RL for short RL algorithms learn from direct experience of reward signals in the environment much as a baby learns to stand up from the positive reward of being upright and the negative reward of falling overReinforcement learning algorithms can also learn how to select actions based on raw perceptual input For example DeepMind’s DN system learned to play 49 different Atari video games entirely from scratch – including Pong Freeway and Space Invaders It used only the screen pixels as input and the game score as a reward signal In most of the games DN learned to play better than a professional human player – despite the fact that DN has no a priori notion of time space objects motion velocity or shooting It is hard to work out what DN is actually doing besides winningIf a newborn baby learned to play dozens of video games at superhuman levels on its first day of life or became world champion at Go chess and shogi we might suspect demonic possession or alien interventionA recent flurry of announcements of multi billion dollar national investments in AI in the United States China France Britain and the EU certainly suggests that none of the major powers wants to be left behind In 2017 Russian president Vladimir Putin said ‘the one who becomes the leader in AI will be the ruler of the world’ This analysis is essentially correctWe have to face the fact that we are planning to make entities that are far powerful than humans How do we ensure that they never ever have power over usTo get just an inkling of the fire we’re playing with consider how content selection algorithms function on social media Typically such algorithms are designed to maximize click through that is the probability that the user clicks on the presented items The solution is simply to present items that the user likes to click on right Wrong The solution is to CHANGE the user’s preferences so that they become predictable A predictable user can be fed items that they are likely to click on thereby generating revenue People with extreme political views tend to be predictable in which items they will click on Like any rational entity the algorithm learns how to modify the state of its environment – in this case the user’s mind – in order to maximize its own reward The conseuences include the resurgence of fascism the dissolution of the social contract that underpins democracies around the world and potentially the end of the European Union and NATO Not bad for a few lines of code even if they it had a helping hand from some humans Now imagine what a really intelligent algorithm would be able to do cf Malcolm Nance’s The Plot to Destroy Democracy; and The Disinformation Report from New Knowledge available onlineAI systems can track an individual’s online reading habits preferences and likely state of knowledge; they can tailor specific messages to maximize impact on that individual while minimizing the risk that the information will be disbelieved The AI system knows whether the individual read the message how long they spend reading it and whether they follow additional links within the message It then uses these signals as immediate feedback on the success or failure of the attempt to influence each individual; in this way it uickly learns to become effective in its work This is how content selection algorithms on social media have had their insidious effect on political opinions cf the book Mindf ck by Christopher Wylie and the Netflix film The Great HackAnother recent change is that the combination of AI computer graphics and speech synthesis is making it possible to generate ‘deepfakes’ – realistic video and audio content of just about anyone saying or doing just about anything Cell phone video of Senator X accepting a bribe from cocaine dealer Y at shady establishment Z No problem This kind of content can induce unshakeable beliefs in things that never happened In addition AI systems can generate millions of false identities – the so called bot armies – that can pump out billions of comments tweets and recommendations daily swamping the efforts of mere humans to exchange truthful informationThe development of basic capabilities for understanding speech and text will allow intelligent personal assistants to do things that human assistants can already do but they will be doing it for pennies per month instead of thousands of dollars per month Basic speech and text understanding also enable machines to do things that no human can do – not because of the depth of understanding but because of its scale For example a machine with basic reading capabilities will be able to read everything the human race has every written by lunchtime and then it will be looking around for something else to do With speech recognition capabilities it could listen to every television and radio broadcast before teatimeAnother ‘superpower’ that is available to machines is to see the entire world at once Satellites image the entire world every day at an average resolution of around fifty centimeters per pixel At this resolution every house ship car cow and tree on earth is visible With the possibility of sensing on a global scale comes the possibility of decision making on a global scaleIf an intelligence explosion does occur and if we have not already solved the problem of controlling machines with only slightly superhuman intelligence – for example if we cannot prevent them from making recursive self improvements – then we would have no time left to solve the control problem and the game would be over This is Nick Bostrom’s hard takeoff scenario in which the machine’s intelligence increases astronomically in just days or weeks cf Superintelligence by Nick BostromAs AI progresses it is likely that within the next few decades essentially all routine physical and mental labor will be done cheaply by machines Since we ceased to be hunter gatherers thousands of years ago our societies have used most people as robots performing repetitive manual and mental tasks so it is perhaps not surprising that robots will soon take on these roles When this happens it will push wages below the poverty line for the majority of people who are unable to compete for the highly skilled jobs that remain This is precisely what happened to horses mechanical transportation became cheaper than the upkeep of a horse so horses became pet food Faced with the socioeconomic euivalent of becoming pet food humans will be rather unhappy with their governmentsOminously Russell points out that there is no reason to expect that Artificial General Intelligences will allow themselves to be turned off by humans any than we allow ourselves to be turned off by gorillas‘Suppose a machine has the objective of fetching the coffee If it is sufficiently intelligent it will certainly understand that it will fail in its objective if it is switched off before completing its mission Thus the objective of fetching coffee creates as a necessary subgoal the objective of disabling the off switch There’s really not a lot you can do once you’re dead so we can expect AI systems to act preemptively to preserve their own existence given or less any definite objectiveThere is no need to build self preservation in because it is an instrumental goal – a goal that is a useful subgoal of almost any original objective Any entity that has a definite objective will automatically act as if it also has instrumental goalsIn addition to being alive having access to money is an instrumental goal within our current system Thus an intelligent machine might want money not because it’s greedy but because money is useful for achieving all sorts of goals In the movie Transcendence when Johnny Depp’s brain is uploaded into the uantum supercomputer the first thing the machine does is copy itself onto millions of other computers on the Internet so that it cannot be switched off The second thing it does is to make a uick killing on the stock market to fund its expansion plansAround ten million years ago the ancestors of the modern gorilla created accidentally the genetic lineage to modern humans How do the gorillas feel about this Clearly if they were able to tell us about their species’ current situation with humans the consensus opinion would be very negative indeed Their species has essentially no future beyond that which we deign to allow We do not want to be in a similar situation with superintelligent machines’As Amy Webb points out in her book on the world’s top AI firms ‘The Big Nine’ in China we can already see the first glimmers of where this is heading‘In what will later be viewed as one of the most pervasive and insidious social experiments on humankind China is using AI in an effort to create an obedient populace The State Council’s AI 2030 plan explains that AI will ‘significantly elevate the capability and level of social governance’ and will be relied on to play ‘an irreplaceable role in effectively maintaining social stability’ This is being accomplished through China’s national Social Credit Score system which according to the State Council’s founding charter will ‘allow the trustworthy to roam everywhere under heaven while making it hard for the discredited to take a single step’In the city of Rongcheng an algorithmic social credit scoring system has already proven that AI works Its 740000 adult citizens are each assigned 1000 points to start and depending on behavior points are added or deducted Performing a ‘heroic act’ might earn a resident 30 points while blowing through a traffic light would automatically deduct 5 points Citizens are labeled and sorted into different brackets ranging from A to D and their choices and ability to move around freely are dictated by their grade The C bracket might discover that they must first pay a deposit to rent a public bike while the A group gets to rent them for free for 90 minutesAI powered directional microphones and smart cameras now dot the highways and streets of Shanghai Drivers who honk excessively are automatically issued a ticket via Tencent’s WeChat while their names photographs and national identity card numbers are displayed on nearby LED billboards If a driver pulls over on the side of the road for than seven minutes they will trigger another instant traffic ticket It isn’t just the ticket and the fine – points are deducted in the driver’s social credit score When enough points are deducted they will find it hard to book airline tickets or land a new job’Russell describes even menacing developments‘Lethal Autonomous Weapons what the United Nations calls AWS already exist The clearest example is Israel’s Harop a loitering munition with a ten foot wingspan and a fifty pound warhead It searches for up to six hours in a given geographical region for any target that meets a given criterion and then destroys itIn 2016 the US Air Force demonstrated the in flight deployment of 103 Perdix micro drones from three FA 18 fighters Perdix are not pre programmed synchronized individuals they are a collective organism sharing one distributed brain for decision making and adapting to each other like swarms in nature’ cf the drone attack in the action film Angel Has FallenIn his book 21 Lessons for the 21st Century Yuval Harari writes‘It is crucial to realize that the AI revolution is not just about computers getting faster and smarter The better we understand the biochemical mechanisms that underpin human emotions desires and choices the better computers can become in analyzing human behavior predicting human decisions and replacing human drivers bankers and lawyersIt turns out that our choices of everything from food to mates result not from some mysterious free will but rather from billions of neurons calculating probabilities within a split second Vaunted 'human intuition' is in reality pattern recognitionThis means that AI can outperform humans even in tasks that supposedly demand 'intuition' In particular AI can be better at jobs that demand intuitions about other people Many lines of work – such as driving a vehicle in a street full of pedestrians lending money to strangers and negotiating a business deal – reuire the ability to correctly assess the emotions and desires of others As long as it was thought that such emotions and desires were generated by an immaterial spirit it seemed obvious that computers would never be able to replace human drivers bankers and lawyersYet if these emotions and desires are in fact no than biochemical algorithms there is no reason computers cannot decipher these algorithms – and do so far better than any homo sapiens’ cf Nick Bostrom’s SuperintelligenceRussell points out that we underestimate AIs at our peril‘Whereas a human can read and understand one book in a week a machine could read and understand every book ever written – all 150 million of them – in a few hours The machine can see everything at once through satellites robots and hundreds of millions of surveillance cameras; watch all the world’s TV broadcasts; and listen to all the world’s radio stations and phone conversations Very uickly it would gain a far detailed and accurate understanding of the world and its inhabitants than any human could possibly hope to acuireIn the cyber realm machines already have access to billions of effectors – namely the displays on all the phones and computers in the world This partly explains the ability of IT companies to generate enormous wealth with very few employees; it also points to the severe vulnerability of the human race to manipulation via screensIn his book Cultural Evolution Ronald Inglehart lead researcher of the World Values Survey observes that despite rhetoric from Trump and other xenophobic demagogues‘Foreigners are not the main threat If developed societies excluded all foreigners and all imports secure jobs would continue to disappear since the leading cause – overwhelmingly – is automation Once artificial intelligence starts learning independently it moves at a pace that vastly outstrips human intelligence Humanity needs to devise the means to stay in control of artificial intelligence I suspect that unless we do so within the next twenty years or so we will no longer have the option’So our species’ remaining time may be limited a momentous event predicted by the philosopher Nietzsche in Thus Spoke Zarathustra‘I teach you the Overman Man is something that shall be overcome what have you done to overcome him All beings so far have created something beyond themselves Do you want to be the ebb of this great flood What is the ape to man A laughingstock or a painful embarrassment And man shall be just that for the OvermanThe Overman is the meaning of the Earth Let your will say the Overman shall be the meaning of the Earth’ And if Artificial Intelligence were the Overman